PVSC 33 Opens

[San Diego, California USA]

First Solar dominates the Keynotes.

The 33rd IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference (PVSC 33) opened on Monday, May 12, 2008, with two Keynote Sessions. Although I arrived on time for once, the conference was opened earlier than the planned 8:30AM start by Conference Chair, Dr. Timothy J Coutts.

SEIA (Solar Energy Industries Association) President Rhone Resch’s forty minute address, The US Solar Revolution, highlighted Keynote Session I. As usual, the ITC or Investment Tax Credit extensions were the focus policies. The SEIA is seeking:

• 8 year, 30%, solar ITC extension for business
• 6 year, 30%, solar ITC extension for residential (eliminate the $2000 cap)
• AMT (Alternative minimum Tax) relief regarding the ITC
• Elimination of the public utility exception to the ITC

With these polices in place, the SEIA and PVNews project US Solar market demand growth to 1590MW by 2010.

Mr. Resch also announced a new conference called PV America 2009. Set to debut in Philadelphia around June 2009, this new conference will be presented in partnership with the IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers) to “put solar front and center” encompassing research and development, market development, finance, and policy in emerging US regional markets. Any profits from PV America will be reinvested to benefit the advancement of photovoltaics.

Echoing sentiments like vote the bums (in the US Congress) out in the 2008 Election if they don’t support solar policies, Mr. Resch said:

It’s Not a Revolution Unless Blood is Spilled.

As is their habit, First Solar’s messaging dominated Keynote Session 2 even though Dr. Swanson’s keynote on The SunPower Story was both informative and entertaining.

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) VP of Technology Dave Eaglesham’s presentation, Thin Film Technology: pathway to Grid Parity, detailed the company’s compelling plans to increase production to 1GWp (GigaWatt-peak) by 2009 while increasing module efficiency to 12 maybe 13% (percent) and lowering manufacturing costs to $0.70 per Watt by 2012!

First Solar continues to set the benchmark for every established and start up PV company in the world.

One question regarding Tellurium supply was dodged by Mr. Eaglesham. First Solar appears to be concerned “speculators” will drive up Tellurium prices before their sourcing arrangements are finalized. Given their market capitalization, perhaps First Solar should just take a minority stake in or acquire a mining company with significant Tellurium reserves?

The First Solar Media team says this presentation will not be posted to the First Solar website even though they are a high profile, public company. Those interested are directed to purchase a Conference Proceedings CD or visit the IEEE Xplore library.

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ:SPWR) President and Chief Technical Officer (CTO) Dr. Richard Swanson had the PVSC 33 favorite keynote, The SunPower Story: The Path from R&D Concentrator Cells to a High Volume PV Panel and System Manufacturer. The story began with Thermophotovoltaics (TPV) research in SunPower’s life B.C. (Before Cypress). Optimizations for TPV led to the innovations integrated into the A300 back contact silicon solar cell.

Dr. Swanson finished his presentation with the announcement of the Gen 3 silicon solar cell with 23.4% efficiency.

What are my quick impressions of PVSC 33 so far?

• Concentrators, multijunction solar cells, and thin films have almost as much session emphasis as silicon in the technical program.
• I’ve been spoiled by EU PVSEC. The coffee urns were empty when I arrived from Keynote Session I after waiting to ask Mr. Resch a few questions. There are zero snacks at the coffee breaks.
• Of course, the Special Invited sessions from 8:00 to 9:30AM are of particular interest. I’ve had trouble with 8:00AM start times for a number of years now after university.
• Poster sessions do not conflict with Oral presentations so there is time allocated to meet and discuss the topics with the researcher(s).
• The PV Velocity Forum is a welcome addition to the conference this year and seeks to bring "investors and policy-makers face-to-face with these solar industry leaders to explore methods for driving superior emerging technologies through production and into the market."

I’ve managed OK with crutches at the conference, but I was so tired yesterday afternoon I had to switch to the wheelchair before the poster session. I decided to take a break today and rest up for the final two days of PVSC 33.

And I echo the congrats to Greentech Media regarding:

GREENTECH MEDIA RAISES $2.75M SERIES B CAPITAL AS MARKET FOR GREEN TECHNOLOGIES ACCELERATES

Solar Light Flashes: February 10, 2008

Select Photovoltaic News Tidbits

This is the first Solar Light Flashes of 2008. Somehow, I didn’t have anything to report on a company name starting with the letter “S”, the most popular first letter for “s”olar companies.

AE Polysilicon

An AE Polysilicon DEP Resolution concerning a sewer module was approved at a Special Meeting of the Falls Township Board of Supervisors on Tuesday, January 22, 2008. An online video of the vote on AE Polysilicon resolution 08-06 is available at the Falls Township Board Of Supervisors Meeting - January 22, 2008. Click on:

Part 1 of 1 - 6:32pm to 6:57pm (timestamp range 6:54:54 to 6:56:45)

and allow the video to load before advancing the time index unless you find the political squabbling between Supervisor Vislosky and Board Chairman Robert Harvie, Jr. (or see Harvie) amusing.

What is the relevance of this regulatory trivia? In the wake of REC ASA - Silicon expansion project - delay and cost overrun or Polysilicon Plant Costs On the Rise by Jennifer Kho at Greentech Media, it seems almost impossible for AE Polysilicon Corporation to begin production by the end of 2008.

APWR

The old AstroPower stock symbol now belongs to A-Power Energy Generation Systems, Ltd. (NASDAQ:APWR). This company does not have a website and was formerly named Chardan South China Acquisition Corp., a Blank Check IPO by Chardan Capital. See this BARRON’s article, Blind-Pool Danger by Leslie P. Norton, for unflattering background on the management behind this Special Purpose Acquisition Corporation (SPAC).

I noticed recent online news reported under this stock symbol has been confused with AstroPower.

Green Light blog at Greentech Media

The post SunPower and First Solar: Two Men Enter. One Man Leaves. by Daniel Englander seems long on provocation and short on arguments. First, I don’t see near term competition between SunPower and First Solar as a zero sum game. Each company’s technology can thrive in photovoltaic applications depending on the specifics of the installation size, area, and location. And any thin film threat as cited from Nanosolar or Sharp to First Solar is an even greater threat to SunPower because of their higher cost per Watt silicon solar cells. SunPower is not “a vertically integrated poly producer” as Mr. Englander states and needs polysilicon prices to decline just to keep up with First Solar and maintain their gross margins. Exploiting their own increasing returns to scale, First Solar can continue to lower their variable manufacturing costs and defend their industry leading cost position.

Thomson Financial chimes in on the First Solar versus SunPower debate in this YouTube video, Squawkbox: On The Radar 01-25-08.

GUNTHER Portfolio is also among the featured blogs at Greentech Media.

INVEST IN GERMANY

Invest in Germany has revamped their website as noted in Newsletter Issue 01/2008. The "Incentives" - Brochure by Invest in Germany looks useful to companies interested in locating in Germany. The last new publication in the Photovoltaics Industry Downloads area remains Fast Track - Photovoltaics as reported in Schmid Silicon Technology: From East Germany with Polysilicon.

In the Jobs & Careers section, there is an opening for a Manager/Senior Manager Renewable Energies & Resources. For those with a long term vision, this position has proven to be a spring board to lucrative opportunities in the renewable energy industry.

NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

In this YouTube video, Dr. Lawrence Kazmerski, Director of the National Center for Photovoltaics (NCPV) at NREL, delivers an entertaining and informative lecture on Photovoltaics: At the Tipping Point at Vanderbilt University on December 3, 2007.

PHOTON International

Cheers to PHOTON International, The Photovoltaic Magazine, for posting articles to their website on a regular basis in 2008. With a massive database of articles, I always thought this would be a great way to leverage their content and entice new subscribers via the teaser content page for the latest issue.

pvresources.com

A new report by Denis Lenardic:

Large-Scale Photovoltaic Power Plants
Cumulative and Annual Installed Power Output Capacity
pvresources.com
Annual Report 2007

can be downloaded from the pvresources.com homepage by clicking on the Annual Report 2007 link.

PV-Tech.org

Per this Photovoltaic Technology About Us:

PV-Tech independently collects and disseminates news and in-depth technical information exclusively for PV manufacturers.

Since this publication showed potential, I added it to my SOLAR LINKS. But what is with the .org designation? Non-profit organizations are the main users of the .org (dot-org) domain, and PV-Tech.org is a for profit company operated by the Henley Media Group. Over a period of one month, PV-Tech.org failed to respond to my emails asking about the .org domain though they did find the time to trumpet themselves in PV-Tech.org - building a sustainable future one cell at a time.

In The INQUIRER Guide to Modern 21st Century Journalism, Mike Magee shares seven (7) Modern Journalist Rules that true journalists and Bloggers alike will find amusing.

Solar Light Flashes: December 31, 2007

Select Photovoltaic News Tidbits

In this final Solar Light Flashes of 2007, I need to catch up on accumulated tidbits I’ve collected over the past few months.

Advent Solar, Inc.
If recent events at Miasolé regarding former CEO David Pearce are the precedent (see Former Miasolé Employees Confirm Cuts by Jennifer Kho at Greentech Media), then Advent Solar Appoints Peter Green as new President and CEO, tends to indicate Rusty Schmit’s days with Advent may be numbered despite the claim:

Company founder Rusty Schmit will remain a member of the Board of Directors in an active role focused on strategic initiatives and will be working with Peter to ensure a smooth transition.

This development also lends credence to anonymous rumors the retooling and layoffs are masking process issues.

Blue Square Energy
While I was on my best behavior at the Dow Jones VentureWire Alternative Energy Innovations 2007 conference in Redwood City, California, AlternativeEnergy.com captured this video of Blue Square Energy (BSE) President and CEO Jeff Barnett’s presentation.

Concentrix Solar GmbH
In the under reported Concentrix passes all tests required for starting construction of its 500 kW power plant in Spain (October 2007), the company’s 5.75 kW prototype system passed ISFOC, Instituto de Sistemas Fotovoltaicos de Concentración S.A. or Institute of Concentration Photovoltaics Systems, required qualification tests including draft IEC standard 62108 D8d (now IEC 62108 Ed. 1.0). Construction of the 200 kW Puertollano, Castilla La Mancha – Spain, installation was supposed to begin in early November 2007.

Greentech Media
Greentech Media: Conversations has so far rolled out two of a six part discussion series with Dr. Richard Swanson, co-founder, President, and Chief Technical Officer (CTO) of SunPower Corporation. Since the series is sponsored by SunPower and mirrored over at the SunPower website as the Richard Swanson Podcast Series, this series has the appearance of an infomercial. Then again, what photovoltaic company would want to sponsor a series about a competitor? Nonetheless, I am sure these podcasts with Dr. Swanson are worth a listen.

Izusu Glass Co., Ltd.
DigInfo (Digitized Information, Inc.) has a short video about Izusu Glass compound parabolic concentrators (CPC) produced using a glass mold process to reduce manufacturing costs.

Oerlikon Solar
I just noticed this public relations Oerlikon Solar Image Film on the website available via streaming (English, Deutsch) or download. And here is an apparent bootleg video Report on solar energy from CASH-TV in German (Deutsch) aired back on October 7, 2007. Oerlikon Solar is a business segment of OC Oerlikon Corporation AG (VTX:OERL).

REC Solar Grade Silicon LLC
This REC Silicon Groundbreaking video by Grant County EDC showed up on YouTube before Christmas even though the ceremony to mark the construction of the new Solar Grade Silicon manufacturing facility in Moses Lake, Washington USA, was held way back on August 16, 2006.

A few updated photos of the construction are posted on the Grant County Economic Development Council website at REC Silicon Project. Slated to ramp in the second half of 2008, the new plant is based on a proprietary FBR (Fluidized Bed Reactor) process and will add 6500 MT (Metric Tons) of granular Solar Grade Silicon production capacity. REC Solar Grade Silicon LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Renewable Energy Corporation ASA (OSL:REC).

Solarvalue AG
The stockings of Solarvalue AG (XETRA:SV7) shareholders were empty this Christmas. No (char)coal, wood chips, quartz, or Solar Grade Silicon (SGS) sample material from a US lab. But did the Solarvalue ÜberBull get high sulfur coal from Santa Claus?

Two series begun in 2007 remain unfinished. I have noticed significant interest in Timminco Limited: O Canada! Solar Grade Silicon, Eh? – Part 1. This is a top priority at the start of 2008, and I have two additional parts planned. There was also supposed to be a Part 3 after Sunways goes its own Silicon ways – Part 2 to cover the Automotive solar segment of Sunways. I have the material but just have not gotten to the write up.

Once again I wish everyone a Happy New Year 2008 and may it be happy and prosperous for us all.

Solar Light Flashes: November 15, 2007

Select Photovoltaic News Tidbits

The Solar Light Flashes format allows me to address news or observations that don’t require a full post.

Cool Earth Solar
Cool Earth Solar (CES, http://www.coolearthsolar.com) has revamped their website and is reshaping solar energy. I heard from CEO Rob Lamkin that CES Senior Team member, Dr. Aurelius Prochazka, co-author of RailsSpace: Building a Social Networking Website with Ruby on Rails, was involved with the implementation. Back on August 24, 2007, the press release, COOL EARTH SOLAR FILES PATENTS FOR SOLAR TECHNOLOGY, demonstrates CSE efforts to protect their Intellectual Property (IP). And Cool Earth Solar in the News was nice enough to link to my post, Cool Earth Solar emerges from Stealth Mode.

GreenVolts Inc.
On Tuesday, November 27, 2007, Kevin Fine, Director of Product Development, GreenVolts, will present Solar Energy Technologies: Emphasis on Concentrating Photovoltaic Technologies, at the California PUC (CPUC) Building, Golden Gate Room, 505 Van Ness Ave., San Francisco, California USA, from Noon - 1:00 PM PST (Pacific Standard Time). This event is sponsored by the San Francisco Power Engineering Chapter of the IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc.). Non-member cost and RSVP details are here.

RenewableEnergyAccess.com
As the Photovoltaic Blogger, reporting on the media is one of my easiest tasks. With rare exception, media never reports on the competition. While I jumped on the news of Intersolar North America 2008, RenewableEnergyAccess.com chose not to report on this significant new event but passed on this Industry Press Release, Record Early Sales of Solar Power 2008 Reflects Growth Trajectory of U.S. Solar Industry, post haste. Could it be because Solar Power 2008 is an advertiser and Media Partner?

RSI Silicon
I noticed RSI (Reaction Sciences Inc.) Silicon Products won the ICE 2007 Ignite Clean Energy Business Presentation Competition during my research into Wakonda Technologies. Per the RSI Silicon website:

Dr. Steve Amendola, along with his experienced team, has commenced building the first plant. It is envisaged that production at the 5,000 metric tonne per annum plant based in Northampton County, Pennsylvania, will commence Q2 2008.

Also notable here is:

RSI will be using low cost raw materials for processing solar grade silicon and not the Metallurgical Grade Si

even though Northampton is in rust belt steel country. I can only presume they will use a precursor with Silicon as a component unless they have developed a Silicon Replicator technology?

Here is the RSI Silicon ICE 2007 PowerPoint presentation and top Ten Finalist video by Newfangler Productions.

SunPower Corporation
On October 22, 2007, SunPower announced SunPower Names Brad Davis as Chief Marketing Officer. Towards the end of this press release, SunPower CEO Tom Werner said:

I am also pleased to announce that Peter Aschenbrenner will be assuming a new role as vice president, corporate strategy, continued Werner. In this position Peter will have responsibility for strategy, business development, and management of SunPower's product portfolio. Peter has been the primary architect of SunPower's strategy since 2003, and with three decades of solar industry experience he is uniquely qualified to help us capitalize on emerging global opportunities.

To date, I have not seen an official resolution of Peter Aschenbrenner under SEC investigation in AstroPower Saga. Could this move be a second step towards a quiet exit for Mr. Aschenbrenner from SunPower?

8. Forum Solarpraxis
I am looking forward to covering this Solarpraxis AG (FRA:SPA) event again next week on November 22-23, 2007, in Berlin, Germany. Here is the program (Deutsch). I am keen to checkout and report on this presentation:

International Solar Silicon Production – an Overview
John R. Mott, COO of Solarvalue Proizvodnja d.d., Ruse (Slovenia)

on Friday, November 23, 2007, at 14:30. I have requested access to select closed Analyst Conferences in advance to avoid a repeat of SOLON AG CEO Kicks PV Blogger Out of Analyst Conference. SOLON is not on my list.

Try entering the URL http://www.guntherportfolio.com and see where it takes you. I wonder what purpose this could serve?

Solar Power 2007: Discussion Panels Aplenty – Part 3

Cost Competitiveness, CEO Panel, and Solar Stocks

To recap, Solar Power 2007: Discussion Panels Aplenty – Part 2 covered the CEO Panel Discussion with topics ranging from the Photovoltaic (PV) Industry Outlook to Silicon.

Part 3, the last installment of this series, tackles the Investing in Solar Stocks: What You Need to Know session moderated by Rob Stone, Cowen and Company with speakers:

Joe McNay, Chairman, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Principal, Essex Investment Management Company
Jesse Pichel, Vice President and Sr. Research Analyst, PiperJaffray
Sanjay Shrestha, Managing Director and Senior Alternative Energy Analyst, Lazard Capital Markets

I arrived late to this session from an interview and missed an opening presentation by a speaker who was not listed in the program. For some reason, the room lights were left dimmed for the rest of the session as you will observe in the video clips.

I thought the session got going with Jesse Pichel’s PV Industry Forecast for 2010. Mr. Pichel predicted a market size of 8 to 10GW (GigaWatts) with 7 to 8GW crystalline silicon and 2GW thin film solar modules depending on US market development.

In 2010, Mr. Pichel predicts overcapacity will drive solar module prices down to a clearing price of $2 per Watt translating to a $3.50 to $4.00 per Watt installed price and driving “unlimited demand for a few years”.

In this scenario, Mr. Pichel recommends avoiding pure commodity solar module suppliers and instead investing in companies with competitive advantages such as low cost manufacturing (China), vertically integrated manufacturing, or owning their own polysilicon supply. Later in the video clip, Sanjay Shrestha discusses unsustainable silicon prices, volatility, demand, price, the cost curve, turnkey suppliers, and downstream companies.

Here (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUfJWTLScwE), Mr. Shrestha talks about the importance of retail grid parity to reduce the PV Industry’s dependence on subsidies and cautions the chance of passing a new US Energy Bill this year is 50/50 at best. However, Mr. Shrestha also believes “the US is a natural market for solar” and with the right policies the US could be a 1GW solar market by 2010.

High Concentration PhotoVoltaics (HCPV)
Mr. Shrestha says HCPV has potential if it gets to less than $1 per Watt, but he believes it may compete against wind and other renewables in centralized applications and lose the traditional solar electric benefit of distributed generation (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nI-eDK6iyE).

Mr. Pichel suggests playing an upstream option on HCPV by investing in EMCORE Corporation (NASDAQ:EMKR) or Boeing Spectrolab. While Emcore may be a reasonable play, an investment in Boeing is more about the 787 Dreamliner and their defense business than photovoltaics (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvGTllguiFE).

Solar Incentive Programs
Jesse Pichel sides with a Feed-in Tariff approach over capex (i.e. rebate) programs because of the “Stop and go policy” issue and the long term returns provided to Photovoltaic system investors. Mr. Shrestha believes the key is to have a policy that gets the PV Industry to retail grid parity and will incentivize utilities to embrace distributed generation (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfUvSZDpep4).

Focus versus Vertical Integration
Mr. Shrestha points out how varying strategies can lead to long term sustainable competitive advantage for solar companies, but this will depend on the market environment tipping Q-Cells, Suntech Power, and SunPower as having favorable positions while pointing out pitfalls for SunEdison and Conergy (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYGeudQs11s).

Solar Stock Valuations

Jesse Pichel chimes in on First Solar, and Sanjay Shrestha covers SunPower.

Although Mr. Shrestha claims SunPower has a reasonable valuation, I believe SunPower is priced to perfection with a Price to Earning (P/E) multiple of over 393 at post time, and SunPower is my choice for the most overpriced stock in the solar PV space.

By contrast, since the stock correction in August 2007, First Solar’s stock has been relaunched to a high multiple P/E of about 164 by plans to almost triple their production capacity. First Solar has achieved the lowest PV Industry variable production cost per Watt, $1.29 in Q1 2007, at 104MWp (MegaWatt-peak) production scale, and has a below multicrystalline silicon solar module pricing model to accelerate sell through. I have noticed a pattern of jealousy, contempt, and fear of First Solar from competitors across all the conferences and tradeshows I have attended over the summer and fall of 2007.

What about LDK Solar Co., Ltd.? I haven’t followed this company and only wrote about them because of the recent Sunways deal (Sunways Reactor-Wafer reversal deal with LDK Solar). I believe a company building a Polysilicon Production Plant is worth watching, but the question remains what is the proper valuation of the stock? Greentech Media has been on top of this unfolding story since the beginning. See New Details Surface as LDK's Stock Continues to Plunge and LDK Steps Up 3Q Guidance for the latest coverage.

Before Solar Power 2007 began, I intended to write a preview article detailing my topics of concern for the conference. These concerns were three fold: the R-Word (Recession), revisionist Solar Incentive Policies, and the most overheated solar stock (SunPower).

Of these three, I was listening for hints of concern about a US recession or economic slowdown (Just Don't Say the R-Word). My fear is the US housing bubble and its liquidity crunch aftermath will result in a slowdown or recession in 2008 later impacting the world economy. I observe the PV Industry and Renewable Energy boom has coincided with a robust long term expansion of the global economy, and I wonder if concerns about global warming will continue to drive high PV Industry growth rates through a global recession.

Worldwide stock markets have recovered from the August 2007 correction, and the claim is things are different because global economic growth does not depend on the US but is driven by BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) nations. Here are some links for further reading:

Double Warning That a Recession May Be on the Way
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
Don’t mention the R-word, but prepare for a slowdown

As an optimist, I will be happy if my R-word concerns are proven unfounded.

Solar Power 2007: Discussion Panels Aplenty – Part 2

Cost Competitiveness, CEO Panel, and Solar Stocks

Solar Power 2007: Discussion Panels Aplenty – Part 1 covered the German American Business Association (GABA) Solar Power: Achieving Cost Competitiveness event. GABA just posted a video of the event here.

Next up is the CEO Panel Discussion. Jordan Goodman, America's Money Answer Man, acted as Moderator of the CEO Panel including:

Anton Milner, CEO, Q-Cells AG
Steve Hill, President, Kyocera Solar
Dr. Zhengrong Shi, Chairman and CEO, Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd.
Thomas Werner, CEO, SunPower Corporation
Ron Kenedi, Vice President, Sharp Corporation’s Solar Energy Solutions Group
Hans-Martin Rüter, CEO, Conergy AG

The photo left is from the press conference following the CEO Panel.

I will focus on interesting statements from the CEO Panel grouped by topic with my own commentary.

Photovoltaic (PV) Industry Outlook (Forecast)
Kyocera Solar President Steve Hill expects a 3GW (GigaWatt) market size in 2008 and 9GW in 2010 factoring in positive development with US solar policies.

Q-Cells CEO Anton Milner left the panel in the dust with an aggressive 5GW worldwide production estimate (4GW installed) for 2008 growing to 14-15GW (12GW installed) by 2010 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pc9i5GBi84o).

As the key determinants of PV Industry growth, Suntech Power CEO Dr. Shi asked: “How fast we can reduce the price? How fast we can have a lot of cheap silicon?”

SunPower CEO Tom Werner cited a wide center point forecast of 5-10GW by 2010.

At the recent 4th European PV Industry Forum in Milan, Michael Schmela, PHOTON International, Editor in Chief, presented the 2007 PHOTON Consulting PV Industry Forecast with 6.1GW in 2008, 15.1GW in 2010, and 20.5GW by 2011.

A number of the panelists slipped and said MegaWatt instead of GigaWatt since the large unit is still new to the PV Industry.

These forecasts are up almost 50% since last year (see Cost, Price and Politics: The Growing Photovoltaic Industry or my Blog version), but I continue to favor the aggressive, successful track record of Q-Cells and PHOTON although I have near term concerns I will discuss at the end of this series.

Grid Parity
Conergy CEO Hans-Martin Rüter discussed the converging trends of rising retail electricity rates of about 4+% per year while PV prices decline on average 5-7% leading to grid parity in high solar radiation areas of the US and the European Mediterranean by around 2011 given a balanced supply demand market.

Suntech Power CEO Dr. Shi said, “Still the most limiting factor here is Silicon Prices still fairly high.” Dwelling on his silicon theme, Dr. Shi thought USD $0.15 per kWh (kiloWatt-hour) generation costs were possible 5-7 years from now in California.

Solar Potential
As is his habit, Q-Cells CEO Anton Milner stole the spotlight with a compelling vision of solar’s future contribution to worldwide electricity generation. Mr. Milner quoted top line worldwide electricity demand growth from 18,000 TWh (TeraWatt-hours) in 2006 to 26,000 TWh by 2020 leading to 11,000 TWh of new and replacement electricity generation capacity investments by 2020. He extrapolated that 4-9% of this 11,000 TWh of capacity investment would be solar.

By 2020, Mr. Milner concluded 12%-33% of new installed electricity generation capacity would be solar resulting in a transformation of the energy industry from centralized large power stations to decentralized solar systems.

Government Incentive Policies
There was a basic disagreement between American panelists and the rest of the world on incentives for photovoltaics in the US market.

SunPower CEO Tom Werner represented the myopic US Solar Industry line on the critical importance of the current Energy Bill in the US Congress with the ITC (Investment Tax Credit) extensions to maintain the PV market status quo.

Again, Q-Cells CEO Milner best articulated how the Feed-in Tariff (FiT) engages return oriented investors to purchase and install PV systems instead of just environmentalists provided there is unlimited guaranteed access to the grid.

Mr. Milner stated a US Feed-in Tariff could turbo charge the PV Industry here until grid parity is achieved, and said “This should be a no brainer,” for US politicians but cautioned about “Stop and go policy” creating uncertainty and killing market development. Does the New Jersey Clean Energy Program or the bad start for the residential California Solar Initiative come to mind?

Last year, I thought the US could develop our own unique American program to spur PV Industry market development. Since then I have dropped my NIH (Not Invented Here) attitude and agree the German Feed-In Tariff rate payer model is superior to the budget constrained and unfair rebate approach. Watching the Stop and go policy for solar in New Jersey convinced me on the power of the Feed-In Tariff model. Spain and Italy have adopted similar Feed-In Tariff models so let’s just admit imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

Overcapacity
Is overcapacity looming for the PV Industry?

Again with the silicon, Suntech Power CEO Dr. Shi said:

If our Silicon people can be more considerate, can be part of the team, because in a way we are the same team, this industry is going to continue to grow.

The key risk for the PV Industry is continuing support from government subsidies until grid parity is achieved in each local market.

Silicon
When will the silicon shortage be ending?
SunPower: Next year to three years perhaps sooner
Suntech Power: Two years time
Conergy: Not easy to say
Q-Cells: Normalization of the silicon markets Mid 2009
Sharp: Next two years. Exploring Thin Film and Concentrators
Kyocera: Next 24-36 months should ease up

When asked about metallurgical silicon, CEO Milner promoted Q-Cells supply deal with Elkem Solar, though not by name, for refined metallurgical silicon. This material was said to be as good as polysilicon resulting in equivalent performance multicrystalline silicon solar cells at 100% mix. Mr. Milner also mentioned this at the GABA event, but I didn’t get a video clip.

Covering the CEO Panel wasn’t as brief as I anticipated. Part 3 will tackle the Investing in Solar Stocks: What You Need to Know session.

The Awards Ceremony for the 2007 CALIFORNIA CLEAN TECH OPEN will be on Monday, October 29, 2007, at the Palace of Fine Arts Theatre in San Francisco, California USA, with registration and exhibits beginning at 4:30PM. I suggest early pre-registration.

Blunden’s Blunder at EPIA’s 4th European PV Industry Forum

Has SunPower lost touch with California Residential Solar Installers?

Last year, it took almost a week for me to gather my thoughts and write an article worthy of publishing on RenewableEnergyAccess.com about the 3rd PV Industry Forum. It doesn’t take more than a few moments to realize when incorrect marketing spin is promoted in a public forum.

That was the case early today, September 5, 2007, at the 4th European PV Industry Forum held during the 22nd EU PVSEC in Milan, Italy. Julie Blunden, Vice President, Public Policy and Corporate Communications, SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ:SPWR), professed that the California solar market has developed well over the past two years. I only wish this were so for local solar installers in the residential market. Please view this partial video clip and make up your own mind. I overheard panel members make incredulous comments about her views.

This contradicts reliable sources such as the recent OPEN FORUM - The future is just overhead, this Blog (California Solar Initiative: No solar home installations “completed” yet in 2007), CSI: Examining California's Ambitious Solar Program, and Solar for Energy Hogs: The California Example.

My take away is SunPower is either motivated by politics to take this position or the large scale solar power plant business of their PowerLight subsidiary is robust in this environment. Regardless, this is bad news for SunPower’s installer channel partners.

And to think SunPower started the week with an informative and, for once, under hyped technical presentation, 2BP.1.2, titled “Low Cost, High Volume Production of >22% Efficiency Silicon Solar Cells” presented by (I think) Mr. De Ceuster.

Too bad. I would like to post something favorable about a company with the highest efficiency monocrystalline silicon solar cells in the world.

Thanks to the BITAGE| HOTSPOT for maintaining a FreeWiFi Hotspot at my Milano hangout, Bar Magenta. Ciao!