Virtual Solar Power International 2008

Almost as good as being there?
Some 22,500 attendees thought it was better to go in person.

Official Video Coverage of Keynotes, Plenary Sessions, CEO Panels, and Sponsor/Paid Advertiser Showcases (was I not supposed to say that?) produced by RenewableEnergyWorld.com are available for viewing via the Solar Power International website or on Brightcove.TV. Right click on the links below to open a new tab or window with each video.

Monday, October 13, 2008
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger Addresses SPI 08
The Governator made a surprise visit and speech before the Opening Reception.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Tuesday Keynote Speeches
General Wesley K. Clark (ret) spoke last. However, the Brightcove player is designed to prevent fast forwarding.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008
CEO Panel – Market Development includes First Solar CEO Mike Ahearn.
CEO Panel – Driving Down Costs
The frank talk of MMA Renewable Ventures CEO Matt Cheney steals the discussion from the ever thoughtful insights of Q-Cells CEO Anton Milner. If you have time for a one video, this is it. I intend to write a post about this CEO Panel.

Thursday, October 16, 2008
Closing Plenary Session
United States Senator Maria Cantwell (D-WA) delivered the last Keynote, and “Cantwell Receives National Solar Energy Champion Award” was the news per a press release from her own Office.

And Katie Fehrenbacher at Earth2Tech had two photovoltaic scoops this past week:

“Nanosolar CEO: No More Easy Money for Solar Companies Without Cash Flow”
“OptiSolar to Turn on Solar Power Soon”

I spoke with the same OptiSolar Vice President, Corporate Communications, Alan Bernheimer, who admitted OptiSolar was at the Expo to “Show the Flag” and had no products to display for the public. I guess Katie asks better questions than I do?

I have a pseudo surprise in the works. I believe some of you have already been visiting the pre-alpha site. The search engines have found it, but Please Stand By.

GreenVolts CarouSol debuts at Solar Power International 2008

[San Diego, California USA]

Can’t Photo (Touch) This!

As suggested in my Solar Power International 2008 Preview post, GreenVolts, Inc., did indeed display a CarouSol unit for the first time, and a sparse CarouSol datasheet is also available.

On Tuesday, October 14, 2008, right after the Expo opened at 10AM, I headed straight to the GreenVolts stand to check out their exhibit. I was not disappointed to see a crowd gawking at a complete GreenVolts CarouSol unit. Up close, my first photo was of the receiver unit. Perhaps because this was seen as aggressive, I was directed by a GreenVolts representative to not take photos! Even though I pointed out I was official, accredited Press, I got a nonsensical statement about the official Solar Power Expo photo policy. Referring to the Media Kit, I pointed out there was no such rule to waning attention. Please see Solar Power: Photos of GreenVolts, Sopogy, SkyFuel by Katie Fehrenbacher for another mention of this.

My official photo policy is to get the damn photos or videos. In addition to the Picasa slideshow above, here are two very unofficial videos of the CarouSol. I apologize in advance to anyone who did not realize they were being recorded. Please note this unit was static and the two-axis tracking function was not demonstated.

Perhaps the concern was regarding close up photos of the CarouSol underside like those in my second visit slideshow?

I didn't even think to look under the unit during my first visit. Perhaps I was distracted by the photo policy?

If you have noticed a drop in recent posting activity, I have been dealing with numerous personal and professional issues the past month or so. Expect my average two to three posts per week to resume this month. And email? Let's not talk about how far behind I am replying to Blog subscriber and reader emails.

Solar Power International 2008 Preview

Solar Power 2008 claims International status but Solar Power North America 2008 is more accurate.
Free Public Night is Wednesday evening, October 15, 2008, from 5:30 - 8:30PM in the Expo Halls.

Solar Power 2008 Conference and Expo Solar Power International 2008 powers up in San Diego, California USA, from Monday, October 13, 2008, to Thursday, October 16, 2008, at the San Diego Convention Center. The Monday, October 13, 2008, Opening Reception networks from 7:00 to 9:00PM (19:00 – 21:00) overlooking the Bay on the San Diego Convention Center terrace.

This year, event organizers, the Solar Electric Power Association (SEPA) and the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), expect over 15,000 attendees for 60 breakout sessions featuring 200 Speakers and about 425 Exhibitors spread out across the 174,000+ square foot (1.62 Hectare) Expo floor.

Per the Solar Power International 2008 website:

Full Conference Registrations are now Sold Out. A limited number of One Day passes may be available on-site. Expo Only Passes, Workshop Registrations, and Reception Tickets are still available.

Go here for Video Coverage if you cannot attend or wish to review sessions after the event.

Here is the Conference lite Schedule-at-a-Glance and the steroidal seventeen (17) page Detailed Agenda. Most Conference sessions are located on the Upper level of the venue while the Expo is on the Ground level in Halls F, G, and H. Paid Workshops and Commercial Solar Tours on Monday and Friday border the main Conference program.

For the Expo, this single page map shows the entire Expo floor plan albeit with small, hard to read company name text. I noticed GreenVolts has a rather large 40 x 20 foot (74.3 square meters) Stand #539. I suspect GreenVolts will display a complete (or partial) CarouSol unit, a public first. The Expo is open Tuesday through Thursday with Show Hours from 10:00AM to 6:00PM (18:00) daily extended to 8:30PM (20:30) on Wednesday, October 15, 2008, for Public Night.

Public Night is Wednesday evening from 5:30 - 8:30PM at the Expo Halls and:

No registration is necessary! Just show up and come on in!

Given the increasing popularity of Public Night, I suggest arriving early. In addition, the following free Workshops will be offered during Public Night:

6:00 to 7:00PM Solar Photovoltaics (PV) For Home Owners
7:00 to 8:00PM Solar Water Heating for Home Owners
6:30 to 8:00PM Find Your Solar Dream Job

This year, Public Night is an integral part of the San Diego 4th Annual Solar Energy Week organized by the California Center for Sustainable Energy (CCSE) beginning with the Family Solar Energy Day on Sunday, October 12, 2008, at Spanish Landing Park from 1:00 to 4:00PM.

I already have a few better offers than the Gaslamp Quarter Solar Power Block Party Tuesday evening, October 14, 2008, from 7:00 to 10:00pm (19:00 – 22:00) but it could be visit worthy.

And this week’s Dilbert comic strips from Thursday and Friday hit the mark regarding venture capital overinvestment in solar and companies like Qimonda jumping into the Photovoltaic Industry.

Sol3g produces 1000th High Concentration PhotoVoltaic M40 Module “grid”

Nearing 500 kWp (kiloWatt-peak) cumulative production?

Friday, August 8, 2008, Sol3g, S.L. released “Sol3g produces its number 1000 grid” which should be up on the News (Español) section of their website soon. Sol3g states they completed their number 1000 (one-thousand) M40 Module grid from their factory in Terrassa (Barcelona) Spain (please see Sol3g inaugurates High Concentration PhotoVoltaics factory) back on July 15, 2008. Each M40 Module grid consists of fourteen (14) M40 Modules.

Photo Credit: Sol3g, S.L.

Now on the specification side, the Sol3g press release claims a single M40 Module has:

An efficiency up to 24% and 35 W of power can be achieved under standard conditions: 1000 W/m² direct normal irradiance and 25ºC cell temperature.

Using the standard High Concentration PhotoVoltaic (HCPV) test conditions, the M40 Module Product Data Sheet specifies 30W (Watt) Power @850W/m² (Watts per meter squared) DNI (Direct Normal Irradiance) for a Class A binned module. Using the 30W module power figure and assuming all modules are Class A:

(30W) (1000 M40 Module grids) (14 M40 Modules) = 420 kWp cumulative production

versus the 490 kWp cumulative production result with the 35W Power @1000W/m².

It is clear the Flix Solar deal (please see Sol3g lands 800kW High Concentration PhotoVoltaic deal with Flix Solar) used the 30W power specification when ordering their required 26,880 M40 Modules. I expect the Sol3g Terrassa factory will be humming in August 2008 completing the balance of M40 Modules required for the Flix deployment which was slated for completion by the end of that month. Then Sol3g will still need to produce modules for the 400 KW installation awarded to Sol3g by ISFOC in Castilla La Mancha or please see ISFOC Awards 1.3MW of Concentrator PhotoVoltaic power plants.

Regarding future production capacity, Sol3g said:

The future plans of the company are to increase the production capacity up to 10 Mw/year for the end of 2008 and to maintain an intense work of investigation and development to continue leading the world-wide market of HCPV systems.

While this is consistent with the announced plans of Sol3g, Sol3g said:

The Flix project will be the largest task carried out by Sol3g since its beginnings in 2004. Alter (After) the factory opened, last January, Sol3g has increased its production capacity, and by the end of 2008 the company expects to increase this to 3MWp.

back in May 2008 with Sol3g lands 800kW High Concentration PhotoVoltaic deal with Flix Solar. I will seek to clarify this aberrational point with Sol3g.

So what is the deal with Solar Power 2008 renaming itself Solar Power International? Per Solar Power Conference and Expo, Reflecting Global Scope and Growth, Becomes Solar Power International, Rhone Resch, president of SEIA said:

As the U.S. solar energy industry has grown, this conference has become an essential event for global solar energy companies that want to do business in the thriving U.S. market. The strong influx of international attendees is an indication of America’s potential to attract investment, create more green-collar jobs and regain our leadership position.

Whatever this rose may be called, this is a regional conference event for national and international companies focused on penetrating and growing solar markets in the United States.

Photovoltaic Conference and Exhibition Preview 2008

Significant photovoltaic conferences and events in 2008

In chronological order, here are the conferences I am interested in covering or following in 2008. The schedule is packed with three new conferences and events versus last year, and my focus remains technical conferences and business to business trade shows, not regional marketing or sales events. Location alignment results in two events each for San Francisco, San Diego, and Munich.

Concentrated Solar Power USA
January 28-29, 2008
San Francisco, California USA

As I mentioned in Photovoltaics: 2007 Post Review and 2008 Trends to Watch – Part 2, Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is the hottest solar power segment. Second in a series, the Event Overview is titled:

How to build - and run - a profitable Concentrated Solar Power plant
Everything you need to know to turn your CSP project into reality

This looks like the perfect event to smarten up on CSP and network with Who's Attending.

Clean Technology & Renewables Conference
February 20, 2008
New York City, New York USA

This Piper Jaffray & Co. (NYSE:PJC) invitation only event caught my attention last year with Solaria spills low concentration photovoltaic technology at Symposium. With Sr. Research Analyst Jesse Pichel and team doing great Photovoltaic (PV) Industry research, this is one of the best investor conferences to attend =if= you can wrangle an invite.

Concentrated Photovoltaic Summit ‘08
April 1-2, 2008
Madrid, Spain

This Concentrator PhotoVoltaics (CPV) summit, “CPV goes commercial – how to build, maintain and run a profitable CPV plant”, has an impressive speaker list and is realized by First Conferences Ltd. who are also the folks behind the above mentioned Concentrated Solar Power USA. However, the timing conflicts with…

Photovoltaic Technology Show 2008 Europe
April 2-4, 2008 (Conferences April 1-4, 2008)
Munich (München), Germany

While the Photovoltaic Technology Show is a photovoltaic production equipment exhibition, this show is a nexus for four distinct PHOTON EXPO conferences held during the first four (4) days of April:

6^th Solar Silicon Conference - April 1, 2008
3^rd PV Production Equipment Conference - April 2, 2008
3^rd PV Investors Conference - April 3, 2008
2^nd PV Glass Conference - April 4, 2008

The sister Photovoltaic Technology Show 2008 Asia event is being held this week on January 16-18, 2008, in Shenzhen, China, with the same four (4) day conference schedule from January 15-18, 2008, including the debut of the PV Glass Conference. PHOTON claims the 5^th Solar Silicon Conference in Shenzhen will cover “Chinese and Eastern European projects” while Munich’s 6^th Solar Silicon Conference will focus on established industry leaders.

33rd IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference (PVSC 33)
May 11-16, 2008
San Diego, California USA

This conference could create some US based competition for the 23rd European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition (EU PVSEC).

Intersolar 2008
June 12-14, 2008 (PV Industry Forum 2008 June 10-11, 2008)
Munich (München), Germany

In order to expand, this year Intersolar moves from Freiburg im Breisgau to the New Munich Trade Fair Centre. Per Quantum Leap for Intersolar Trade Fair, this big trade fair goes huge with an over 80% increase in exhibition area. The Solar Promotion sponsored PV Industry Forum expands to cover the two days before Intersolar 2008 opens.

SEMICON West 2008 / Intersolar North America 2008
July 15-17, 2008 Exhibition
San Francisco, California USA

Please see Intersolar North America 2008 for my write up on this new event. The SEMICON West conference program and events run from July 14-18, 2008.

23rd European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition
September 1-5, 2008
Valencia, Spain

The 23rd European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition continues as my must cover conference selection for 2008. With the comprehensive conference program, EPIA’s 5th European PV Industry Forum, and the expanded trade exhibition, this is the best annual technical and business to business solar conference and exhibition.

Solar Power 2008
October 13-16, 2008
San Diego, California USA

The Solar Power Conference and Expo has established itself as the premiere US solar business to business event attracting well over 10,000 visitors in 2007. Intersolar North America 2008 will look to mount a challenge to this position.

21st NREL Industry Growth Forum
Fall 2008 (specific date not announced)
USA (location not announced)

A great two day conference about technologies the latest solar startups are developing for commercialization and pitching to venture capitalists and investors.There was dearth of NREL Forum press coverage in 2007 despite the rising interest in renewable energy technologies. Although I did not attend, I managed to post Wakonda Technologies wins at the 20th NREL Industry Growth Forum. NREL's 20th Industry Growth Forum Presentations are available here.

9. Forum Solarpraxis
November 2008
Berlin, Germany

I had a productive 8. Forum Solarpraxis leading to the post, Solarvalue AG Analyst Conference at the 8. Forum Solarpraxis, and the impromptu site visit In Search of Nanosolar GmbH.

Honorable mention:
PV TECH MILANO 2008
November 25-28, 2008
Milan, Italy

The 5th INTERNATIONAL EXHIBITION ON THE PHOTOVOLTAIC INDUSTRY AND TECHNOLOGIES lands in the Fiera Milano. Although this exhibition may have a regional focus, it is hard to ignore a photovoltaic production equipment trade fair.

Of course, I plan to cover the 2008 California Clean Tech Open (CCTO), and I await details on the event schedule and the regional expansion plans for the competition.

I decided to skip the 2008 International CES (Consumer Electronics Show) from January 7-10, 2008, in Las Vegas, Nevada USA. Instead of the CES consolation prize, I will be attending the Macworld Conference & Expo tomorrow. I’m not sure there will be anything solar, but I will keep my eyes open.

Intersolar North America 2008

Intersolar joins SEMICON West next year in San Francisco

Intersolar North America 2008 (http://www.intersolar.us/) will be co-hosted by SEMICON West 2008 from July 15-17, 2008, at the Moscone Center West Hall, Level 3, in San Francisco, California USA.

Solar Promotion GmbH and the Freiburg Wirtschaft Touristik und Messe GmbH & Co (FWTM), the organizers of Intersolar, and SEMI, the organizer of SEMICON said:

The new exposition will be the largest trade event serving the full solar energy supply chain in the United States.

Intersolar North America is expecting about 10,000 visitors for over 200 photovoltaic (PV) and solar thermal exhibitors covering 100,000 square feet (9290 square meters) of exhibition space or more.

Exhibit sales for Intersolar North America 2008 will open Thursday, November 15.

SEMICON West photovoltaic alumni exhibitors should note:

SEMICON West remains the venue for exhibitors focused on manufacturing equipment, materials and services.

Here are the respective press releases: Intersolar and SEMICON West to form largest solar technology exposition in North America and SEMI® Partners to Co-host Intersolar North America in Conjunction With SEMICON West.

Visitors registered for SEMICON West or Intersolar will be able to attend both exhibitions without paying extra fees or separate badging. Intersolar North America plans to hold a day and a half PV technology conference during the event at additional cost. I expect to see a North American version of the PV Industry Forum on the conference program.

It looks like Solar Power 2008 will have some competition starting next year. I first heard about efforts to organize an American version of Intersolar following the opening day press conference at the 22nd EU PVSEC in Milan. Intersolar 2008 Europe will be held a month earlier from June 12-14, 2008, in Munich, Germany, at the New Munich Trade Fair Centre after making the move from Freiburg im Breisgau.

Solar Power 2007: Discussion Panels Aplenty – Part 3

Cost Competitiveness, CEO Panel, and Solar Stocks

To recap, Solar Power 2007: Discussion Panels Aplenty – Part 2 covered the CEO Panel Discussion with topics ranging from the Photovoltaic (PV) Industry Outlook to Silicon.

Part 3, the last installment of this series, tackles the Investing in Solar Stocks: What You Need to Know session moderated by Rob Stone, Cowen and Company with speakers:

Joe McNay, Chairman, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Principal, Essex Investment Management Company
Jesse Pichel, Vice President and Sr. Research Analyst, PiperJaffray
Sanjay Shrestha, Managing Director and Senior Alternative Energy Analyst, Lazard Capital Markets

I arrived late to this session from an interview and missed an opening presentation by a speaker who was not listed in the program. For some reason, the room lights were left dimmed for the rest of the session as you will observe in the video clips.

I thought the session got going with Jesse Pichel’s PV Industry Forecast for 2010. Mr. Pichel predicted a market size of 8 to 10GW (GigaWatts) with 7 to 8GW crystalline silicon and 2GW thin film solar modules depending on US market development.

In 2010, Mr. Pichel predicts overcapacity will drive solar module prices down to a clearing price of $2 per Watt translating to a $3.50 to $4.00 per Watt installed price and driving “unlimited demand for a few years”.

In this scenario, Mr. Pichel recommends avoiding pure commodity solar module suppliers and instead investing in companies with competitive advantages such as low cost manufacturing (China), vertically integrated manufacturing, or owning their own polysilicon supply. Later in the video clip, Sanjay Shrestha discusses unsustainable silicon prices, volatility, demand, price, the cost curve, turnkey suppliers, and downstream companies.

Here (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUfJWTLScwE), Mr. Shrestha talks about the importance of retail grid parity to reduce the PV Industry’s dependence on subsidies and cautions the chance of passing a new US Energy Bill this year is 50/50 at best. However, Mr. Shrestha also believes “the US is a natural market for solar” and with the right policies the US could be a 1GW solar market by 2010.

High Concentration PhotoVoltaics (HCPV)
Mr. Shrestha says HCPV has potential if it gets to less than $1 per Watt, but he believes it may compete against wind and other renewables in centralized applications and lose the traditional solar electric benefit of distributed generation (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nI-eDK6iyE).

Mr. Pichel suggests playing an upstream option on HCPV by investing in EMCORE Corporation (NASDAQ:EMKR) or Boeing Spectrolab. While Emcore may be a reasonable play, an investment in Boeing is more about the 787 Dreamliner and their defense business than photovoltaics (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvGTllguiFE).

Solar Incentive Programs
Jesse Pichel sides with a Feed-in Tariff approach over capex (i.e. rebate) programs because of the “Stop and go policy” issue and the long term returns provided to Photovoltaic system investors. Mr. Shrestha believes the key is to have a policy that gets the PV Industry to retail grid parity and will incentivize utilities to embrace distributed generation (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfUvSZDpep4).

Focus versus Vertical Integration
Mr. Shrestha points out how varying strategies can lead to long term sustainable competitive advantage for solar companies, but this will depend on the market environment tipping Q-Cells, Suntech Power, and SunPower as having favorable positions while pointing out pitfalls for SunEdison and Conergy (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYGeudQs11s).

Solar Stock Valuations

Jesse Pichel chimes in on First Solar, and Sanjay Shrestha covers SunPower.

Although Mr. Shrestha claims SunPower has a reasonable valuation, I believe SunPower is priced to perfection with a Price to Earning (P/E) multiple of over 393 at post time, and SunPower is my choice for the most overpriced stock in the solar PV space.

By contrast, since the stock correction in August 2007, First Solar’s stock has been relaunched to a high multiple P/E of about 164 by plans to almost triple their production capacity. First Solar has achieved the lowest PV Industry variable production cost per Watt, $1.29 in Q1 2007, at 104MWp (MegaWatt-peak) production scale, and has a below multicrystalline silicon solar module pricing model to accelerate sell through. I have noticed a pattern of jealousy, contempt, and fear of First Solar from competitors across all the conferences and tradeshows I have attended over the summer and fall of 2007.

What about LDK Solar Co., Ltd.? I haven’t followed this company and only wrote about them because of the recent Sunways deal (Sunways Reactor-Wafer reversal deal with LDK Solar). I believe a company building a Polysilicon Production Plant is worth watching, but the question remains what is the proper valuation of the stock? Greentech Media has been on top of this unfolding story since the beginning. See New Details Surface as LDK's Stock Continues to Plunge and LDK Steps Up 3Q Guidance for the latest coverage.

Before Solar Power 2007 began, I intended to write a preview article detailing my topics of concern for the conference. These concerns were three fold: the R-Word (Recession), revisionist Solar Incentive Policies, and the most overheated solar stock (SunPower).

Of these three, I was listening for hints of concern about a US recession or economic slowdown (Just Don't Say the R-Word). My fear is the US housing bubble and its liquidity crunch aftermath will result in a slowdown or recession in 2008 later impacting the world economy. I observe the PV Industry and Renewable Energy boom has coincided with a robust long term expansion of the global economy, and I wonder if concerns about global warming will continue to drive high PV Industry growth rates through a global recession.

Worldwide stock markets have recovered from the August 2007 correction, and the claim is things are different because global economic growth does not depend on the US but is driven by BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) nations. Here are some links for further reading:

Double Warning That a Recession May Be on the Way
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
Don’t mention the R-word, but prepare for a slowdown

As an optimist, I will be happy if my R-word concerns are proven unfounded.

Solar Power 2007: Second Golden Meter Award Winner

Colorado Public Utilities Commission honored with the 2007 Golden Meter Award

Wednesday evening in the Press Room at Solar Power 2007, Ron Binz, Chairman of the Colorado Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), was presented the second Golden Meter Award For Excellence in Net Metering Rules by Claudine Schneider, President of the Solar Alliance. See the official press release from the Network for New Energy Choices in Golden Meter Awarded at Solar Power 2007.

The authors of the Freeing the Grid 2007 report (download the summary), the Interstate Renewable Energy Council (IREC), the Network for New Energy Choices (NNEC), the Solar Alliance, and The Vote Solar Initiative, selected Colorado for crafting a best practice net metering policy.

In his acceptance speech, CPUC Chairman Ron Binz said:

We think we're doing things right in Colorado and it's great to have our hard work cited by these groups. With the leadership of Governor Ritter and the Legislature, we're creating a good environment for solar and wind power.

Colorado Governor Ritter has delivered on his New Energy Economy vision by building upon Amendment 37 and doubling the Renewable Energy Portfolio standard for investor owned utilities to 20% by the year 2020. No longer exempt, municipal utilities and rural electric providers are required to generate 10% of their electricity from renewable sources by 2020.

Colorado has vaulted from an NNEC net metering grade of “F” to an “A” tying New Jersey for the top spot in the US. Please review State Report Cards & Profiles for your state’s ranking.

For the first time ever, GUNTHER Portfolio is ranked number one (#1) on the regional TOP 50 Solar United Kingdom index. This has been a long journey, but the tougher part will be staying there.

Solar Power 2007: Discussion Panels Aplenty – Part 2

Cost Competitiveness, CEO Panel, and Solar Stocks

Solar Power 2007: Discussion Panels Aplenty – Part 1 covered the German American Business Association (GABA) Solar Power: Achieving Cost Competitiveness event. GABA just posted a video of the event here.

Next up is the CEO Panel Discussion. Jordan Goodman, America's Money Answer Man, acted as Moderator of the CEO Panel including:

Anton Milner, CEO, Q-Cells AG
Steve Hill, President, Kyocera Solar
Dr. Zhengrong Shi, Chairman and CEO, Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd.
Thomas Werner, CEO, SunPower Corporation
Ron Kenedi, Vice President, Sharp Corporation’s Solar Energy Solutions Group
Hans-Martin Rüter, CEO, Conergy AG

The photo left is from the press conference following the CEO Panel.

I will focus on interesting statements from the CEO Panel grouped by topic with my own commentary.

Photovoltaic (PV) Industry Outlook (Forecast)
Kyocera Solar President Steve Hill expects a 3GW (GigaWatt) market size in 2008 and 9GW in 2010 factoring in positive development with US solar policies.

Q-Cells CEO Anton Milner left the panel in the dust with an aggressive 5GW worldwide production estimate (4GW installed) for 2008 growing to 14-15GW (12GW installed) by 2010 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pc9i5GBi84o).

As the key determinants of PV Industry growth, Suntech Power CEO Dr. Shi asked: “How fast we can reduce the price? How fast we can have a lot of cheap silicon?”

SunPower CEO Tom Werner cited a wide center point forecast of 5-10GW by 2010.

At the recent 4th European PV Industry Forum in Milan, Michael Schmela, PHOTON International, Editor in Chief, presented the 2007 PHOTON Consulting PV Industry Forecast with 6.1GW in 2008, 15.1GW in 2010, and 20.5GW by 2011.

A number of the panelists slipped and said MegaWatt instead of GigaWatt since the large unit is still new to the PV Industry.

These forecasts are up almost 50% since last year (see Cost, Price and Politics: The Growing Photovoltaic Industry or my Blog version), but I continue to favor the aggressive, successful track record of Q-Cells and PHOTON although I have near term concerns I will discuss at the end of this series.

Grid Parity
Conergy CEO Hans-Martin Rüter discussed the converging trends of rising retail electricity rates of about 4+% per year while PV prices decline on average 5-7% leading to grid parity in high solar radiation areas of the US and the European Mediterranean by around 2011 given a balanced supply demand market.

Suntech Power CEO Dr. Shi said, “Still the most limiting factor here is Silicon Prices still fairly high.” Dwelling on his silicon theme, Dr. Shi thought USD $0.15 per kWh (kiloWatt-hour) generation costs were possible 5-7 years from now in California.

Solar Potential
As is his habit, Q-Cells CEO Anton Milner stole the spotlight with a compelling vision of solar’s future contribution to worldwide electricity generation. Mr. Milner quoted top line worldwide electricity demand growth from 18,000 TWh (TeraWatt-hours) in 2006 to 26,000 TWh by 2020 leading to 11,000 TWh of new and replacement electricity generation capacity investments by 2020. He extrapolated that 4-9% of this 11,000 TWh of capacity investment would be solar.

By 2020, Mr. Milner concluded 12%-33% of new installed electricity generation capacity would be solar resulting in a transformation of the energy industry from centralized large power stations to decentralized solar systems.

Government Incentive Policies
There was a basic disagreement between American panelists and the rest of the world on incentives for photovoltaics in the US market.

SunPower CEO Tom Werner represented the myopic US Solar Industry line on the critical importance of the current Energy Bill in the US Congress with the ITC (Investment Tax Credit) extensions to maintain the PV market status quo.

Again, Q-Cells CEO Milner best articulated how the Feed-in Tariff (FiT) engages return oriented investors to purchase and install PV systems instead of just environmentalists provided there is unlimited guaranteed access to the grid.

Mr. Milner stated a US Feed-in Tariff could turbo charge the PV Industry here until grid parity is achieved, and said “This should be a no brainer,” for US politicians but cautioned about “Stop and go policy” creating uncertainty and killing market development. Does the New Jersey Clean Energy Program or the bad start for the residential California Solar Initiative come to mind?

Last year, I thought the US could develop our own unique American program to spur PV Industry market development. Since then I have dropped my NIH (Not Invented Here) attitude and agree the German Feed-In Tariff rate payer model is superior to the budget constrained and unfair rebate approach. Watching the Stop and go policy for solar in New Jersey convinced me on the power of the Feed-In Tariff model. Spain and Italy have adopted similar Feed-In Tariff models so let’s just admit imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

Overcapacity
Is overcapacity looming for the PV Industry?

Again with the silicon, Suntech Power CEO Dr. Shi said:

If our Silicon people can be more considerate, can be part of the team, because in a way we are the same team, this industry is going to continue to grow.

The key risk for the PV Industry is continuing support from government subsidies until grid parity is achieved in each local market.

Silicon
When will the silicon shortage be ending?
SunPower: Next year to three years perhaps sooner
Suntech Power: Two years time
Conergy: Not easy to say
Q-Cells: Normalization of the silicon markets Mid 2009
Sharp: Next two years. Exploring Thin Film and Concentrators
Kyocera: Next 24-36 months should ease up

When asked about metallurgical silicon, CEO Milner promoted Q-Cells supply deal with Elkem Solar, though not by name, for refined metallurgical silicon. This material was said to be as good as polysilicon resulting in equivalent performance multicrystalline silicon solar cells at 100% mix. Mr. Milner also mentioned this at the GABA event, but I didn’t get a video clip.

Covering the CEO Panel wasn’t as brief as I anticipated. Part 3 will tackle the Investing in Solar Stocks: What You Need to Know session.

The Awards Ceremony for the 2007 CALIFORNIA CLEAN TECH OPEN will be on Monday, October 29, 2007, at the Palace of Fine Arts Theatre in San Francisco, California USA, with registration and exhibits beginning at 4:30PM. I suggest early pre-registration.

Solar Power 2007 Expo, Modules, and Webcasts

[Long Beach, California USA]

Expo and Module fun

First, here is a Picasa slideshow of select stands from the Expo.

When I was looking for the “hot” story of Solar Power 2007, I toyed with idea of choosing a noteworthy module like last year in SunPower delivers larger module with 315W Peak Power and establishing my own tradition. Though not the hot story, two modules stood out as I walked through the main Expo in the Long Beach Convention Center and the smaller venues in the Hyatt Regency Ballrooms. These selections are somewhat subjective with technical and aesthetic influences.

The Evergreen Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:ESLR) Spruce Line(TM) ES-195 Module impressed me as one of the best looking modules Evergreen has ever produced. I have been a fan of Evergreen’s string ribbon technology as a silicon miser, but I always thought the modules were plain ugly looking. Although I first saw this module at Intersolar 2007 and took photos, I never gave them a second glance. The solar cells on this module had reduced blue coloring and a symmetric look.

Mark Farber, an Evergreen Solar cofounder, was at the main desk and addressed my questions about the improved panel appearance. Mark said the string ribbon silicon solar cells are thinner and more uniform than before, and the antireflective coating and texture contribute to the rest of the improvement.

This Spruce Line 195W (Watt) module is guaranteed for 100% rated power with a Power Tolerance specified at -0 / +2.5%. No worries.

Sanyo Electric Co., Ltd. (TYO:6764) subsidiary Sanyo Energy USA Corp. was showing their HIT Double Bifacial Photovoltaic Modules. These modules build upon Sanyo’s HIT technology by converting light striking both sides of the module into electricity. Because power is generated from light passing through the module or reflected from surfaces near or behind the module, these modules are ideal for BIPV (Building Integrated PhotoVoltaic) applications such as awnings, canopies, carports, fences, or trellises.

The HIP-xxxDA3 Modules range from 180W to 200W rated power at STC (Standard Test Conditions) for the front side of the panel =not= including power from the module’s bifacial backside. This module is so advanced; a standard test method does not exist. Sanyo claims the Bifacial Modules may deliver up to 130% of their STC rating depending on the installation and amount of reflected light onto the module’s backside. Here again the Power Tolerance is specified at 100% rated power minimum or a Power Tolerance of -0 / +10.0%.

Sanyo has a Letter Regarding Sept 2007 Photon Article refuting the validity of Photon’s recent HIT PV module test results and a technical paper about their HIT 22.3% Efficiency Announced at PVSEC 09/2007.

SunPower didn't show the SPR-315 Solar Module at their stand. I interpreted this to mean the SPR-315 is not available to mainstream channel partners.

Please don’t forget to view the available webcasts of Plenary Sessions and Keynote speeches. Click on the title link to view each webcast.

Solar Power 2007 Welcome Address
Julia Judd Hamm of SEPA and Rhone Resch of the SEIA.

Solar Power 2007 Keynote Address: Ray Lane
Ray Lane, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers

Solar Power 2007 Keynote Address: Ted Turner
Ted Turner, Turner Enterprises partnered with Dome-Tech Solar to create DT Solar, a Turner renewable energy company.

CEO Panel Discussion
About the Future of the Solar Industry

Since I missed the last day at Solar Power 2007, and I will be viewing these Closing Plenary webcasts to see what was going on:

Keynote Address: Charles Zimmerman
Closing Plenary: Larry Hagman on Solar Power
Closing Plenary: Q&A with Larry Hagman and Charles Zimmerman

I’m at least one post behind this week, and the critics are posting comments like this one. Ouch!

(Full disclosure: I own some shares of ESLR stock).

Solar Power 2007: It’s all about YOU!

Overwhelming Success driven by the participation of Solar Industry Professionals, Stakeholders, and just regular Folks

The Solar Power 2007 Conference and Expo opened yesterday in Long Beach, California, to record registrations from solar industry professionals, investors, utility managers, builders, policymakers, would be solar entrepreneurs, and citizens. Registration lines sprawled the length of the Long Beach Convention & Entertainment Center until early afternoon.

As of today, there were about 9300 registrations including 500 new Expo Only registrations. About 3000 solar curious local residents packed the Expo Halls for the free Public Night to learn about solar technologies, going solar, and solar career opportunities.

The big story from the first day of Solar Power 2007 wasn’t a product or project announcement, a keynote address, or a celebrity speaker like Ted Turner. The cumulative contribution of individual attendees and local residents to the record attendance and interest in everything solar was the real “hot” story.

SEIA President Rhone Resch’s keynote hit on three early Conference themes. His 2007 Year in Review citied the First new CSP Plant Online and 2500MW under contract as the first bullet point. Photovoltaics was a mere second. Next, the status of the Energy Bill with the ITC (Investment Tax Credit) extensions was reviewed. And last, the Action Alert “We need YOU!” was issued to the Plenary audience to support the ongoing Energy Bill negotiations in the US Congress.

Ted Turner didn’t disappoint a receptive Opening Plenary session with quotable sound bites. See Turner: 'Drop Solar Panels, Not Bombs' by Jennifer Kho at Greentech Media for Mr. Turner’s insights and comments.

While Ted charmed the crowd, the earlier keynote by Ray Lane, Managing Partner, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers (KPCB), highlighted the keynotes and underscored a shift from Solar Power 2006. Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) and KPCB’s recent investment in Ausra, Inc. have stolen the utility scale spotlight from High Concentration PhotoVoltaics (HCPV) this year.

Sorry for this late initial post. I was sidetracked by an exceptional party last night at the Sky Room Bar hosted by MMA Renewable Ventures and the Antenna Group.