Solar Light Flashes: February 10, 2008

Select Photovoltaic News Tidbits

This is the first Solar Light Flashes of 2008. Somehow, I didn’t have anything to report on a company name starting with the letter “S”, the most popular first letter for “s”olar companies.

AE Polysilicon

An AE Polysilicon DEP Resolution concerning a sewer module was approved at a Special Meeting of the Falls Township Board of Supervisors on Tuesday, January 22, 2008. An online video of the vote on AE Polysilicon resolution 08-06 is available at the Falls Township Board Of Supervisors Meeting - January 22, 2008. Click on:

Part 1 of 1 - 6:32pm to 6:57pm (timestamp range 6:54:54 to 6:56:45)

and allow the video to load before advancing the time index unless you find the political squabbling between Supervisor Vislosky and Board Chairman Robert Harvie, Jr. (or see Harvie) amusing.

What is the relevance of this regulatory trivia? In the wake of REC ASA - Silicon expansion project - delay and cost overrun or Polysilicon Plant Costs On the Rise by Jennifer Kho at Greentech Media, it seems almost impossible for AE Polysilicon Corporation to begin production by the end of 2008.

APWR

The old AstroPower stock symbol now belongs to A-Power Energy Generation Systems, Ltd. (NASDAQ:APWR). This company does not have a website and was formerly named Chardan South China Acquisition Corp., a Blank Check IPO by Chardan Capital. See this BARRON’s article, Blind-Pool Danger by Leslie P. Norton, for unflattering background on the management behind this Special Purpose Acquisition Corporation (SPAC).

I noticed recent online news reported under this stock symbol has been confused with AstroPower.

Green Light blog at Greentech Media

The post SunPower and First Solar: Two Men Enter. One Man Leaves. by Daniel Englander seems long on provocation and short on arguments. First, I don’t see near term competition between SunPower and First Solar as a zero sum game. Each company’s technology can thrive in photovoltaic applications depending on the specifics of the installation size, area, and location. And any thin film threat as cited from Nanosolar or Sharp to First Solar is an even greater threat to SunPower because of their higher cost per Watt silicon solar cells. SunPower is not “a vertically integrated poly producer” as Mr. Englander states and needs polysilicon prices to decline just to keep up with First Solar and maintain their gross margins. Exploiting their own increasing returns to scale, First Solar can continue to lower their variable manufacturing costs and defend their industry leading cost position.

Thomson Financial chimes in on the First Solar versus SunPower debate in this YouTube video, Squawkbox: On The Radar 01-25-08.

GUNTHER Portfolio is also among the featured blogs at Greentech Media.

INVEST IN GERMANY

Invest in Germany has revamped their website as noted in Newsletter Issue 01/2008. The "Incentives" - Brochure by Invest in Germany looks useful to companies interested in locating in Germany. The last new publication in the Photovoltaics Industry Downloads area remains Fast Track - Photovoltaics as reported in Schmid Silicon Technology: From East Germany with Polysilicon.

In the Jobs & Careers section, there is an opening for a Manager/Senior Manager Renewable Energies & Resources. For those with a long term vision, this position has proven to be a spring board to lucrative opportunities in the renewable energy industry.

NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

In this YouTube video, Dr. Lawrence Kazmerski, Director of the National Center for Photovoltaics (NCPV) at NREL, delivers an entertaining and informative lecture on Photovoltaics: At the Tipping Point at Vanderbilt University on December 3, 2007.

PHOTON International

Cheers to PHOTON International, The Photovoltaic Magazine, for posting articles to their website on a regular basis in 2008. With a massive database of articles, I always thought this would be a great way to leverage their content and entice new subscribers via the teaser content page for the latest issue.

pvresources.com

A new report by Denis Lenardic:

Large-Scale Photovoltaic Power Plants
Cumulative and Annual Installed Power Output Capacity
pvresources.com
Annual Report 2007

can be downloaded from the pvresources.com homepage by clicking on the Annual Report 2007 link.

PV-Tech.org

Per this Photovoltaic Technology About Us:

PV-Tech independently collects and disseminates news and in-depth technical information exclusively for PV manufacturers.

Since this publication showed potential, I added it to my SOLAR LINKS. But what is with the .org designation? Non-profit organizations are the main users of the .org (dot-org) domain, and PV-Tech.org is a for profit company operated by the Henley Media Group. Over a period of one month, PV-Tech.org failed to respond to my emails asking about the .org domain though they did find the time to trumpet themselves in PV-Tech.org - building a sustainable future one cell at a time.

In The INQUIRER Guide to Modern 21st Century Journalism, Mike Magee shares seven (7) Modern Journalist Rules that true journalists and Bloggers alike will find amusing.

Photovoltaic Conference and Exhibition Preview 2008

Significant photovoltaic conferences and events in 2008

In chronological order, here are the conferences I am interested in covering or following in 2008. The schedule is packed with three new conferences and events versus last year, and my focus remains technical conferences and business to business trade shows, not regional marketing or sales events. Location alignment results in two events each for San Francisco, San Diego, and Munich.

Concentrated Solar Power USA
January 28-29, 2008
San Francisco, California USA

As I mentioned in Photovoltaics: 2007 Post Review and 2008 Trends to Watch – Part 2, Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is the hottest solar power segment. Second in a series, the Event Overview is titled:

How to build - and run - a profitable Concentrated Solar Power plant
Everything you need to know to turn your CSP project into reality

This looks like the perfect event to smarten up on CSP and network with Who's Attending.

Clean Technology & Renewables Conference
February 20, 2008
New York City, New York USA

This Piper Jaffray & Co. (NYSE:PJC) invitation only event caught my attention last year with Solaria spills low concentration photovoltaic technology at Symposium. With Sr. Research Analyst Jesse Pichel and team doing great Photovoltaic (PV) Industry research, this is one of the best investor conferences to attend =if= you can wrangle an invite.

Concentrated Photovoltaic Summit ‘08
April 1-2, 2008
Madrid, Spain

This Concentrator PhotoVoltaics (CPV) summit, “CPV goes commercial – how to build, maintain and run a profitable CPV plant”, has an impressive speaker list and is realized by First Conferences Ltd. who are also the folks behind the above mentioned Concentrated Solar Power USA. However, the timing conflicts with…

Photovoltaic Technology Show 2008 Europe
April 2-4, 2008 (Conferences April 1-4, 2008)
Munich (München), Germany

While the Photovoltaic Technology Show is a photovoltaic production equipment exhibition, this show is a nexus for four distinct PHOTON EXPO conferences held during the first four (4) days of April:

6^th Solar Silicon Conference - April 1, 2008
3^rd PV Production Equipment Conference - April 2, 2008
3^rd PV Investors Conference - April 3, 2008
2^nd PV Glass Conference - April 4, 2008

The sister Photovoltaic Technology Show 2008 Asia event is being held this week on January 16-18, 2008, in Shenzhen, China, with the same four (4) day conference schedule from January 15-18, 2008, including the debut of the PV Glass Conference. PHOTON claims the 5^th Solar Silicon Conference in Shenzhen will cover “Chinese and Eastern European projects” while Munich’s 6^th Solar Silicon Conference will focus on established industry leaders.

33rd IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference (PVSC 33)
May 11-16, 2008
San Diego, California USA

This conference could create some US based competition for the 23rd European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition (EU PVSEC).

Intersolar 2008
June 12-14, 2008 (PV Industry Forum 2008 June 10-11, 2008)
Munich (München), Germany

In order to expand, this year Intersolar moves from Freiburg im Breisgau to the New Munich Trade Fair Centre. Per Quantum Leap for Intersolar Trade Fair, this big trade fair goes huge with an over 80% increase in exhibition area. The Solar Promotion sponsored PV Industry Forum expands to cover the two days before Intersolar 2008 opens.

SEMICON West 2008 / Intersolar North America 2008
July 15-17, 2008 Exhibition
San Francisco, California USA

Please see Intersolar North America 2008 for my write up on this new event. The SEMICON West conference program and events run from July 14-18, 2008.

23rd European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition
September 1-5, 2008
Valencia, Spain

The 23rd European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition continues as my must cover conference selection for 2008. With the comprehensive conference program, EPIA’s 5th European PV Industry Forum, and the expanded trade exhibition, this is the best annual technical and business to business solar conference and exhibition.

Solar Power 2008
October 13-16, 2008
San Diego, California USA

The Solar Power Conference and Expo has established itself as the premiere US solar business to business event attracting well over 10,000 visitors in 2007. Intersolar North America 2008 will look to mount a challenge to this position.

21st NREL Industry Growth Forum
Fall 2008 (specific date not announced)
USA (location not announced)

A great two day conference about technologies the latest solar startups are developing for commercialization and pitching to venture capitalists and investors.There was dearth of NREL Forum press coverage in 2007 despite the rising interest in renewable energy technologies. Although I did not attend, I managed to post Wakonda Technologies wins at the 20th NREL Industry Growth Forum. NREL's 20th Industry Growth Forum Presentations are available here.

9. Forum Solarpraxis
November 2008
Berlin, Germany

I had a productive 8. Forum Solarpraxis leading to the post, Solarvalue AG Analyst Conference at the 8. Forum Solarpraxis, and the impromptu site visit In Search of Nanosolar GmbH.

Honorable mention:
PV TECH MILANO 2008
November 25-28, 2008
Milan, Italy

The 5th INTERNATIONAL EXHIBITION ON THE PHOTOVOLTAIC INDUSTRY AND TECHNOLOGIES lands in the Fiera Milano. Although this exhibition may have a regional focus, it is hard to ignore a photovoltaic production equipment trade fair.

Of course, I plan to cover the 2008 California Clean Tech Open (CCTO), and I await details on the event schedule and the regional expansion plans for the competition.

I decided to skip the 2008 International CES (Consumer Electronics Show) from January 7-10, 2008, in Las Vegas, Nevada USA. Instead of the CES consolation prize, I will be attending the Macworld Conference & Expo tomorrow. I’m not sure there will be anything solar, but I will keep my eyes open.

Solar Power 2007: Discussion Panels Aplenty – Part 2

Cost Competitiveness, CEO Panel, and Solar Stocks

Solar Power 2007: Discussion Panels Aplenty – Part 1 covered the German American Business Association (GABA) Solar Power: Achieving Cost Competitiveness event. GABA just posted a video of the event here.

Next up is the CEO Panel Discussion. Jordan Goodman, America's Money Answer Man, acted as Moderator of the CEO Panel including:

Anton Milner, CEO, Q-Cells AG
Steve Hill, President, Kyocera Solar
Dr. Zhengrong Shi, Chairman and CEO, Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd.
Thomas Werner, CEO, SunPower Corporation
Ron Kenedi, Vice President, Sharp Corporation’s Solar Energy Solutions Group
Hans-Martin Rüter, CEO, Conergy AG

The photo left is from the press conference following the CEO Panel.

I will focus on interesting statements from the CEO Panel grouped by topic with my own commentary.

Photovoltaic (PV) Industry Outlook (Forecast)
Kyocera Solar President Steve Hill expects a 3GW (GigaWatt) market size in 2008 and 9GW in 2010 factoring in positive development with US solar policies.

Q-Cells CEO Anton Milner left the panel in the dust with an aggressive 5GW worldwide production estimate (4GW installed) for 2008 growing to 14-15GW (12GW installed) by 2010 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pc9i5GBi84o).

As the key determinants of PV Industry growth, Suntech Power CEO Dr. Shi asked: “How fast we can reduce the price? How fast we can have a lot of cheap silicon?”

SunPower CEO Tom Werner cited a wide center point forecast of 5-10GW by 2010.

At the recent 4th European PV Industry Forum in Milan, Michael Schmela, PHOTON International, Editor in Chief, presented the 2007 PHOTON Consulting PV Industry Forecast with 6.1GW in 2008, 15.1GW in 2010, and 20.5GW by 2011.

A number of the panelists slipped and said MegaWatt instead of GigaWatt since the large unit is still new to the PV Industry.

These forecasts are up almost 50% since last year (see Cost, Price and Politics: The Growing Photovoltaic Industry or my Blog version), but I continue to favor the aggressive, successful track record of Q-Cells and PHOTON although I have near term concerns I will discuss at the end of this series.

Grid Parity
Conergy CEO Hans-Martin Rüter discussed the converging trends of rising retail electricity rates of about 4+% per year while PV prices decline on average 5-7% leading to grid parity in high solar radiation areas of the US and the European Mediterranean by around 2011 given a balanced supply demand market.

Suntech Power CEO Dr. Shi said, “Still the most limiting factor here is Silicon Prices still fairly high.” Dwelling on his silicon theme, Dr. Shi thought USD $0.15 per kWh (kiloWatt-hour) generation costs were possible 5-7 years from now in California.

Solar Potential
As is his habit, Q-Cells CEO Anton Milner stole the spotlight with a compelling vision of solar’s future contribution to worldwide electricity generation. Mr. Milner quoted top line worldwide electricity demand growth from 18,000 TWh (TeraWatt-hours) in 2006 to 26,000 TWh by 2020 leading to 11,000 TWh of new and replacement electricity generation capacity investments by 2020. He extrapolated that 4-9% of this 11,000 TWh of capacity investment would be solar.

By 2020, Mr. Milner concluded 12%-33% of new installed electricity generation capacity would be solar resulting in a transformation of the energy industry from centralized large power stations to decentralized solar systems.

Government Incentive Policies
There was a basic disagreement between American panelists and the rest of the world on incentives for photovoltaics in the US market.

SunPower CEO Tom Werner represented the myopic US Solar Industry line on the critical importance of the current Energy Bill in the US Congress with the ITC (Investment Tax Credit) extensions to maintain the PV market status quo.

Again, Q-Cells CEO Milner best articulated how the Feed-in Tariff (FiT) engages return oriented investors to purchase and install PV systems instead of just environmentalists provided there is unlimited guaranteed access to the grid.

Mr. Milner stated a US Feed-in Tariff could turbo charge the PV Industry here until grid parity is achieved, and said “This should be a no brainer,” for US politicians but cautioned about “Stop and go policy” creating uncertainty and killing market development. Does the New Jersey Clean Energy Program or the bad start for the residential California Solar Initiative come to mind?

Last year, I thought the US could develop our own unique American program to spur PV Industry market development. Since then I have dropped my NIH (Not Invented Here) attitude and agree the German Feed-In Tariff rate payer model is superior to the budget constrained and unfair rebate approach. Watching the Stop and go policy for solar in New Jersey convinced me on the power of the Feed-In Tariff model. Spain and Italy have adopted similar Feed-In Tariff models so let’s just admit imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

Overcapacity
Is overcapacity looming for the PV Industry?

Again with the silicon, Suntech Power CEO Dr. Shi said:

If our Silicon people can be more considerate, can be part of the team, because in a way we are the same team, this industry is going to continue to grow.

The key risk for the PV Industry is continuing support from government subsidies until grid parity is achieved in each local market.

Silicon
When will the silicon shortage be ending?
SunPower: Next year to three years perhaps sooner
Suntech Power: Two years time
Conergy: Not easy to say
Q-Cells: Normalization of the silicon markets Mid 2009
Sharp: Next two years. Exploring Thin Film and Concentrators
Kyocera: Next 24-36 months should ease up

When asked about metallurgical silicon, CEO Milner promoted Q-Cells supply deal with Elkem Solar, though not by name, for refined metallurgical silicon. This material was said to be as good as polysilicon resulting in equivalent performance multicrystalline silicon solar cells at 100% mix. Mr. Milner also mentioned this at the GABA event, but I didn’t get a video clip.

Covering the CEO Panel wasn’t as brief as I anticipated. Part 3 will tackle the Investing in Solar Stocks: What You Need to Know session.

The Awards Ceremony for the 2007 CALIFORNIA CLEAN TECH OPEN will be on Monday, October 29, 2007, at the Palace of Fine Arts Theatre in San Francisco, California USA, with registration and exhibits beginning at 4:30PM. I suggest early pre-registration.

Media developments during the 22nd EU PVSEC

Greentech Media, Photovoltaik, and PHOTON

Although Greentech Media Launches Independent News and Analysis Website occurred on September 4, 2007, I bumped into Greentech Journalist Rachel Barron at the official 22nd EU PVSEC press conference on Monday after the Opening Session. Greentech Editor Jennifer Kho and Ms. Barron are both Red Herring alumni. I was an avid reader of Ms. Kho’s solar articles last fall and even linked to one.

Greentech Media, Inc., was founded by Scott Clavenna and Rick Thompson last of Light Reading, an online publication with the tagline: NETWORKING THE TELECOM INDUSTRY. Greentech Media’s President and CEO Clavenna introduces the website in Welcome to Greentech Media. Greentech has established partnerships with the Prometheus Institute and Rob Day of @Ventures as the exclusive host of his Cleantech Investing Blog. Greentech Media secured $1 Million in Series A funding back on May 21, 2007, in a round led by Northport Private Equity and Lightspeed Venture Partners.

I think I need to purge my broken RED HERRING Energy link and replace it with Greentech Media.

Since Intersolar 2007, the folks who launched Photovoltaik - Das Magazin für Profis, Solarpraxis AG (FRA:SPA) and Alfons W. Gentner Verlag GmbH & Co. KG, have been busy developing a Special 2007 International/American oriented English edition of Photovoltaik – The Professional’s Magazine. The cover story is Ewing Oil Turns Solar interviewing Larry Hagman, Actor and Renewable Energy Supporter. Mr. Hagman is presenting at the Closing Plenary Session of Solar Power 2007.

Solarpraxis was providing gratis sample copies of the Special 2007 edition from a shared stand with pvXchange at the 22nd EU PVSEC Exhibition. I had a chance to chat with Solarpraxis AG CEO Karl-Heinz Remmers on the Metro back from the FIERA MILANO RHO, and the Solarpraxis team will be in attendance at Solar Power 2007, and I believe (almost 100% certain) Solar Power 2007 attendees can expect copies of the Special 2007 edition to be available.

I can’t confirm if this is new news, but Solar Verlag GmbH, the publisher of PHOTON magazines, will launch an Italian version, PHOTON – il Mensile del Fotovoltaico (link points to PHOTON International at post time), starting with the January 2008 edition (see PHOTON 9/2007, p. 27). The magazine has a cover price of €4.20. If I am reading the italiano right, a 12 month annual subscription costs €44 per year (€36 for students) and €84 for subscriptions outside the European Union.

This pricing is similar to German and Spanish PHOTON versions, but, for some reason, a 12 month subscription to the PHOTON International English version costs €214 per year! PHOTON International does not even have a price printed on the cover. PHOTON International claims the regular newsstand price for 12 issues is €321 or an eye popping €26.75 per issue. PHOTON International sells back issues since February 2002 for €25 (PI 9/2007, p. 47) versus the 22nd EU PVSEC Special Conference Price of €15.

While, in fairness, PHOTON International subscribers have more perks than even PHOTON - das Solarstrom-Magazin subscribers, do these perks justify an almost five (5) times higher subscription price?

This pricing discrepancy could make spot market Polysilicon look cheap.

Photovoltaik magazine launched at Intersolar 2007

[Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany]

Targeting busy industry professionals

Solarpraxis AG (FRA:SPA) and Alfons W. Gentner Verlag GmbH & Co. KG have formed a joint venture and launched the unusual issue 00 (double zero) of Photovoltaik-Magazin für Profis at Intersolar 2007 with a 50,000 copy first run. Neue Fachzeitschrift „Photovoltaik“ geht mit 50.000 Auflage an den Start announced the partnership and goals for this new German language publication back in March 2007. Starting with the September 2007 issue, Photovoltaik will be published every month.

I spoke at length with Karl-Heinz Remmers, Solarpraxis AG CEO, to obtain a better understanding of Photovoltaik’s positioning and innovative approach to serve solar electric professionals. Every new publication covering photovoltaics is faced with immediate questions. Are they a direct competitor to industry leader PHOTON? In this case, how are they positioned versus the German language version, PHOTON - das Solarstrom-Magazin? Since Photovoltaik targets active specialists and decision makers of the solar power industry, Photovoltaik is narrower in scope than PHOTON’s A to Z kitchen sink approach to the photovoltaic market for every demographic from consumers to University Professors.

Photovoltaik is centered around two to four page analysis articles covering the prominent issues. Each article will include a one or two sentence executive summary for the ultimate time stressed, multitasking industry professional.

While the 00 issue Editorial describes the style, format, and standard columns of the periodical, two innovative columns stand out. First, active trade electricians and photovoltaic professionals are polled each month to gauge the health and outlook for the market in Germany on a regional basis. Second, the Klagemauer (Western Wall) highlights the top challenges or complaints of professionals in the industry. In the first issue, the modules are too heavy was the number one complaint of installers. I think this will remain a top three gripe for a long time!

Photovoltaik will also leverage the Internet to supplement articles, update content, and even offer an online version of the publication. Online subscriptions hosted by servers powered by renewable energy offer a sustainable alternative to print media.

German photovoltaic industry professionals can sign up for a two month trial of Photovoltaik by going to http://www.photovoltaik.eu/de/abo/ and completing the online form.

I hear the Solarpraxis Team will be attending (and exhibiting at?) Solar Power 2007 in Long Beach, California USA, and may have something to show. Perhaps a localized version of Photovoltaik for the US market is in the works? Solarpraxis and Gentner have international ambitions to expand their joint venture publications with local partners worldwide.

California Clean Tech Open 2007 Kick-off Event Wrap up

[San Francisco, California USA]

Closing Speakers headline the Event

Even though I took BART, I arrived late to the California Clean Tech Open 2007 launch event and missed the Welcome Introductions and opening speakers.

But first, there are six clean tech categories in the competition: Air, Water & Waste, Energy Efficiency, Green Building, Renewables, Smart Power, and Transportation. The California Clean Tech Open (CCTO) winner in each category will receive a "Start-Up In A Box" Prize Package worth $100,000: $50,000 in cash from the category prize sponsor and an additional $50,000 worth of sponsor donated office space and professional services.

The timeline for the CCTO business plan competition is as follows:

June 4, 2007	Technology and Entrepreneur Matching Event
June 14, 2007	Executive Summary Workshop for Applicants
June 30, 2007	Application Submissions Deadline
June – August 2007	Innovators' Symposia and other Sponsor Events
July 26, 2007	First Round Judging - Finalist Teams Announced
August – September 2007	Clean Tech Entrepreneur Summer Workshop Series and Mentoring Services
September 19, 2007	Submit Business Plan and Presentation Deadline
October 1-8, 2007	Live Presentation to Judging Panel
October 30, 2007?	2007 Competition Awards Ceremony (tentative date)

If you are interested in entering the Competition, please visit How To Enter The Competition to register and understand the competition process. In 2006, 47 finalist teams were selected from 156 business plan entrants for an intensive mentoring boot camp preparing them to present their business plans to the CCTO Judging Panel. The CCTO 2006 Competition Report has all the details about last year. My wild guess is the number of entrants in the CCTO competition will almost double to 300 this year. About 30 to 60 finalist teams will be selected from the Executive Summary submissions.

I found the panel discussion moderated by Kerry Dolan, Senior Editor, Forbes, to be a category prize sponsor showcase without any major revelations. By contrast, the Closing Speakers had practical advice and profound thoughts about the competition, business, clean tech, and energy policy.

The first was profiled in the post, GreenVolts CEO Bob Cart addresses California Clean Tech Open 2007 Kick-off Event.

Raj Atluru, Managing Director, Draper Fisher Jurvetson, shared Clean Tech words of wisdom from the venture capitalist viewpoint:

John Garamendi, Lieutenant Governor of California, focused on fundamental changes to our national Energy Policy as a critical driver for Clean Tech to prevent climate change. This is a decent political speech that avoids mentioning the The Governator (Governor Schwarzenegger) or the California Solar Initiative too much.

Garrett Hering, Associate Editor, PHOTON International, asked the Lieutenant Governor a question about the recent LA Times article, Rebate rule chills sales of solar (registration may be required), by Marc Lifsher, reporting:

Public Utilities Commission reports show a decline of 78% in rebate requests in the first three months of this year, compared with last year, and the solar installation industry says it is threatened with collapse across much of California.

It looks like California, New Jersey (NJCEP Spring 2007 CORE Program and Queues), and Ontario, Canada, (Mixed Reviews for Ontario's Feed-in Tariff) all have problematic solar incentive programs though for different reasons.